The main point to consider is how or if this business will be caught up in the near certain short-term chaos that may drastically trade with the UK and EU countries.
Our view is that this will be limited – ports used for deep sea trade have only small amounts of EU business. Most trade with the EU is carried on ro-ro (drive on drive off) ships, with Dover by far the biggest port.
Felixstowe, the biggest port handling non EU goods on the other hand handles modest volumes of ro-ro cargo with the overwhelming amount of business being container ships that are loaded by crane.
Other deep sea ports such as Southampton and London Gateway also handle similarly small volumes of EU cargo.
Therefore the risk to non EU trade seems to be more about week consumer demand as a consequence of Brexit and as well as a possible further drop in the value of sterling which would make imports
more expensive and exports cheaper to sell. On the other hand sterling could increase in value and consumer confidence grow and not decline – who knows?