How Prolonged Hormuz Disruption Could Reshape Global Shipping

The ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is creating consequences that extend far beyond the Middle East. What began as a regional maritime security crisis has become a wider challenge for international shipping, affecting fuel prices, freight rates, insurance premiums, vessel availability and the reliability of global supply chains.

For shipping companies, freight forwarders, importers and exporters, the central concern is how long these conditions will persist. If the situation remains unresolved over the next 12 months, the industry could face sustained cost pressures, changing trade routes and a more expensive, less predictable operating environment.

As of October 2026, the situation remains unresolved. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) reported in August that at least 70 attacks on international shipping had been verified since the conflict began, with 19 seafarers killed. It also reported that up to 400 vessels carrying around 6,000 seafarers had been unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely. Read the IMO’s latest statement on the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The implications for the shipping industry over the coming year will depend on whether safe passage is restored, how quickly vessel movements normalise and whether insurers and shipping companies regain confidence in the region. However, the longer disruption continues, the greater the risk that temporary emergency measures become lasting changes to international logistics.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters to Global Shipping

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints. Connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Indian Ocean, it is a critical route for energy exports from several major producing countries.

Its importance extends beyond oil tankers. The surrounding region supports liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, container shipping, bulk cargo and the movement of industrial materials and agricultural inputs. Disruption can therefore affect businesses and transport networks well beyond those directly operating in the Gulf.

According to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Strait normally carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, alongside significant volumes of LNG and fertilisers. UNCTAD has warned that disruption can transmit higher energy, freight, fuel and insurance costs throughout global supply chains.

For the shipping industry, the problem is not simply that some vessels cannot use a particular route. It is that the loss of a major maritime corridor can change the economics and practical operation of the wider transport network.

1. Shipping Costs Could Remain Elevated Throughout 2027

One of the most immediate consequences of prolonged disruption is the potential for persistently higher shipping costs.

When vessels face security risks, operators may have to pay more for insurance, crew, fuel, security arrangements and alternative transport routes. These additional costs can feed into freight rates for customers, particularly where carriers have limited flexibility to absorb the increases.

The pressure is already visible in energy shipping. On 12 October 2026, Reuters reported that OPEC and non-OPEC ministers had raised concerns about sharply increased shipping and insurance costs for energy flows, with those costs exceeding one-third of the commodity value in some cases. Read Reuters’ report on rising shipping and insurance costs.

If disruption continues, shipping companies may face repeated rate adjustments rather than a single temporary increase. Bunker fuel prices, war-risk insurance and the availability of suitable vessels could all remain volatile.

For importers and exporters, this would make freight budgeting more difficult. Businesses operating on fixed-price contracts may find that the original assumptions behind their logistics costs no longer hold, while companies negotiating new contracts could face higher quotations or shorter periods of rate validity.

However, freight rates will not necessarily rise across every route at the same pace. The effect will depend on vessel type, cargo, trade lane, capacity, fuel prices and the extent to which operators can pass additional costs on to customers.

2. Higher Fuel Prices Will Affect Shipping Beyond the Gulf

The shipping industry’s exposure to the Strait of Hormuz goes well beyond vessels physically passing through it.

Oil and refined fuel are essential inputs for global transport. When energy supply is disrupted or becomes more expensive to move, marine fuel prices can rise, increasing operating costs for container ships, bulk carriers, tankers and other commercial vessels.

These costs can affect shipping routes thousands of miles away from the Middle East. A container vessel operating between Asia and Europe, for example, may never enter the Persian Gulf but can still be exposed to higher bunker prices and fuel-related surcharges.

The consequences can also spread to road haulage, air freight and warehousing through higher diesel, energy and transport costs. Businesses that rely on multiple modes of transport may therefore experience cost increases across their entire logistics operation.

UNCTAD’s analysis of Hormuz disruption highlights how higher energy and transport costs can spread through interconnected supply chains.

If the crisis persists into 2027, businesses may need to reassess transport budgets, delivery pricing and inventory strategies more frequently. Fuel surcharges could become a more significant consideration when comparing freight quotations.

3. War-Risk Insurance Could Reshape Carrier Decisions

Insurance is another major pressure point.

Shipowners and operators must assess whether voyages through high-risk areas remain commercially and operationally viable. Where underwriters consider a region particularly dangerous, war-risk cover may become more expensive, require additional conditions or be withdrawn for certain operations.

These decisions can influence whether a carrier accepts a booking, sends a vessel into the region or diverts cargo through an alternative route.

In some cases, the cost of insurance may be manageable compared with the potential revenue from a voyage. In others, the combination of premiums, security risks, crew concerns and uncertain schedules may make the voyage unattractive.

The IMO’s continuing warnings about the safety of commercial vessels and seafarers demonstrate that the situation is not simply a question of financial cost. See the IMO’s statement on the ongoing crisis.

Over the next year, prolonged uncertainty could encourage shipping companies to reconsider their exposure to the region, review contractual risk allocation and seek clearer arrangements for additional insurance costs.

For customers, this could mean more complicated quotations, additional surcharges and a greater need to understand the terms governing delays, diversions and exceptional expenses.

4. Vessel Availability and Shipping Schedules Could Deteriorate

One of the less obvious effects of a maritime chokepoint disruption is the impact on vessel availability elsewhere.

When ships are delayed, diverted or unable to leave a region, they cannot return to their planned schedules. Containers may arrive late, return voyages may be missed and subsequent departures can be disrupted.

This creates a knock-on effect across shipping networks.

For container shipping, a vessel arriving late at one port may miss its allocated berth or departure window at the next. The delay can then affect other ports on the same rotation, creating schedule instability across an entire service.

Tankers and bulk carriers can face similar challenges, particularly when voyages require additional waiting time or alternative arrangements for loading and unloading.

UNCTAD has previously highlighted how geopolitical disruption and rerouting can lengthen voyages, reduce effective shipping capacity and increase operating costs. Read UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport.

If these pressures continue into 2027, businesses could face less reliable estimated arrival times and greater difficulty coordinating production, warehouse labour and onward deliveries.

For freight forwarders, this would increase the importance of proactive shipment monitoring, alternative routing options and early communication with customers.

5. Port Congestion Could Spread Across International Trade Routes

The consequences of prolonged disruption will not necessarily remain concentrated around the Strait itself.

When carriers change routes, divert cargo or adjust vessel schedules, the effects can spread to alternative ports and transhipment hubs. Ports receiving additional traffic may experience pressure on berths, cranes, storage areas and onward transport connections.

Even ports that do not receive significantly more cargo can be affected by changes in vessel arrival patterns. Several ships arriving together after delays can create temporary congestion, while missed connections can leave containers waiting for the next available service.

This is particularly challenging for businesses relying on tightly coordinated international supply chains.

A delayed container may lead to missed warehouse slots, production interruptions, additional storage charges or late delivery to customers. These costs can accumulate even when the original shipment eventually reaches its destination.

Businesses can reduce some of this exposure by reviewing alternative ports and routes, building realistic buffers into delivery schedules and avoiding excessive reliance on a single transport corridor.

K&L Freight explores these issues in its guide to mitigating the impact of port congestion on supply chain logistics.

6. Global Supply Chains Could Become More Expensive and Less Predictable

If disruption continues for another year, businesses may need to reconsider how they source, transport and store goods.

For many years, international supply chains have prioritised efficiency, low inventory levels and predictable delivery schedules. Prolonged maritime disruption challenges that approach by making transport costs and delivery times harder to forecast.

Some businesses may respond by holding more safety stock, ordering earlier or using alternative suppliers. Others may diversify their sourcing across different countries to reduce dependence on individual regions or transport corridors.

These measures can improve resilience, but they are not free. Holding additional inventory ties up working capital and increases storage costs. Switching suppliers can involve qualification, quality-control and contractual challenges. Alternative routes may be longer or more expensive.

The result could be a gradual shift towards supply chains that place greater emphasis on resilience alongside cost efficiency.

Reuters’ reporting on the search for alternative energy export routes illustrates how the crisis is encouraging businesses to consider backup infrastructure and less concentrated supply arrangements.

For logistics managers, the practical priority is to identify which shipments are most exposed, understand the cost of potential delays and decide where extra flexibility would provide the greatest commercial benefit.

7. Air Freight and Alternative Transport Options May Become More Important

When sea freight becomes less predictable, businesses may turn to air freight for urgent shipments.

Air freight is generally more expensive than sea freight, so it is unlikely to replace ocean transport for most bulk or low-value goods. However, it can provide an alternative for critical components, high-value products, urgent replacement parts and time-sensitive stock.

The important point is that switching to air freight does not eliminate every risk. Airline capacity, airport handling, customs clearance and onward road transport can also be affected by wider disruption and rising energy costs.

Businesses should therefore consider a planned combination of transport modes rather than relying on emergency air freight as their only contingency.

For example, a company could continue moving its routine inventory by sea while reserving air freight for products where a delay would cause significant financial damage.

K&L Freight’s guide to sea freight versus air freight explains how businesses can balance transit time, transport cost and shipment urgency.

8. The Effects Could Reach Food, Manufacturing and Consumer Prices

The impact of prolonged disruption could extend beyond freight operators and importers.

Higher fuel and transport costs can increase the cost of moving raw materials, components and finished products. Where businesses cannot absorb these increases, some costs may eventually be passed on to customers.

Agriculture and food supply chains are also exposed because the region is important for fertiliser trade and energy supplies used throughout production and distribution.

UNCTAD’s analysis of the Strait of Hormuz disruption identifies risks to energy markets, fertiliser availability and wider trade costs. These effects can place pressure on producers and economies already operating with limited financial flexibility.

Manufacturers may also face increased costs for imported materials and components, particularly where production depends on energy-intensive processes or internationally sourced inputs.

The extent of any impact on retail prices will vary by product and market. Freight is only one part of the final cost of a product, and businesses may absorb some increases, renegotiate contracts or change suppliers. Nevertheless, a prolonged period of elevated logistics costs could contribute to wider inflationary pressure.

9. What Could the Next 12 Months Look Like?

The shipping industry’s outlook depends heavily on how the situation develops. Rather than assuming that one outcome is inevitable, businesses should prepare for several possibilities.

If safe passage is restored relatively quickly, vessel movements may gradually normalise. However, insurance terms, freight contracts and disrupted schedules may take time to return to normal. The end of an immediate security crisis does not automatically restore the previous operating environment overnight.

If disruption continues intermittently, shipping companies may face repeated periods of uncertainty. Rates and surcharges could fluctuate, schedules may remain unreliable and businesses could struggle to know whether a route is safe and commercially viable from one month to the next.

If severe disruption persists into 2027, the industry could face more structural changes. Companies may invest in alternative supply routes, increase strategic inventory, diversify sourcing and place greater value on flexible transport arrangements. Some of these changes could remain in place even after conditions improve.

These are scenarios, not certain forecasts. The scale of the impact will depend on security developments, diplomatic progress, energy supply responses, insurance decisions and the capacity of the shipping industry to adapt.

For businesses, the sensible approach is to plan for continued volatility without assuming that every route will remain disrupted for the entire year.

How Businesses Can Prepare for Prolonged Shipping Disruption

Importers and exporters cannot control the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, but they can reduce their exposure to its consequences.

Practical measures include:

• Review vulnerable routes: Identify shipments that rely on Gulf ports, regional transhipment hubs or exposed maritime corridors.
• Build realistic lead times: Allow for possible schedule changes, customs delays and missed connections.
• Review freight contracts: Understand how fuel surcharges, war-risk premiums, diversions and exceptional costs are handled.
• Consider alternative transport modes: Assess where air freight or alternative sea routes could protect particularly urgent shipments.
• Improve shipment visibility: Monitor milestones and respond quickly when a vessel or connection is delayed.
• Review safety stock: Determine whether additional inventory is justified for critical products, rather than increasing stock indiscriminately.
• Communicate early: Keep suppliers, customers and internal teams informed about changing arrival dates and potential cost increases.
• Work with an experienced freight forwarder: Use specialist support to compare options, manage documentation and coordinate alternative arrangements.

Businesses can also use K&L Freight’s guide to time-sensitive shipments to assess how urgent cargo can be planned and managed when delivery deadlines are critical.

How K&L Freight Can Help

Prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz highlights why international logistics requires more than securing the lowest initial freight rate.

Businesses need to understand the complete journey of their cargo, the risks affecting each stage and the alternatives available if a shipment is delayed or a route becomes impractical.

K&L Freight provides international freight forwarding services to help businesses coordinate shipments, evaluate transport options and manage the practical challenges of international trade.

Whether you are importing goods into the UK, exporting products overseas or managing a complex supply chain, an experienced freight forwarding partner can help you assess the available options and make informed decisions as market conditions change.

Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz disruption has the potential to influence the global shipping industry well beyond the immediate conflict zone. If the situation remains unresolved over the next 12 months, higher fuel and insurance costs, vessel delays, schedule instability and supply chain uncertainty could continue to affect businesses across multiple sectors.

The impact will not be identical for every company or trade route. Some businesses will face direct disruption, while others will experience the consequences through higher operating costs, altered shipping schedules or more expensive raw materials.

The most important consideration is preparation. Businesses that understand their exposure, monitor shipments closely and develop realistic alternatives will be better placed to manage continued volatility.

For the shipping industry as a whole, the coming year may reinforce a lasting lesson: resilient supply chains need flexibility, reliable information and contingency planning, not just low freight rates and tightly optimised schedules.

Key Takeaways

• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy and maritime trade.
• Prolonged disruption could keep shipping, fuel and insurance costs elevated.
• Higher marine fuel prices can affect routes far beyond the Middle East.
• Vessel delays and diversions can reduce effective capacity and disrupt schedules.
• Port congestion and missed connections may create additional costs across supply chains.
• Importers and exporters may need to review inventory levels, sourcing and transport strategies.
• Air freight can protect urgent shipments, although it is generally more expensive than sea freight.
• The extent of the impact through 2027 depends on security conditions and the restoration of reliable maritime passage.
• Businesses should prepare contingency plans and work closely with experienced freight forwarding partners